The Tories' current rhetoric around climate action risks alienating the many voters that care about the environment, writes CEN's John Flesher
As the 2024 general election enters its final three weeks, the environment has not yet been a prominent part of the national debate, with a focus instead on immigration, taxes, and some of the more eye-catchy policy announcements like national service.
But 2024's voters are also inevitably considering the record of the past 14 years. The failures are perhaps obvious, but it would be churlish in the extreme not to also recognise the achievements of successive Conservative governments since 2010.
Improvements in educational outcomes, increases in employment, support for the lowest paid, support for Ukraine, and the vaccine rollout can all stake a claim to be amongst the notable successes in the last 14 years, but it is action to protect the environment that should represent the supreme achievement of this period of Conservative government.
The UK has halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990; coal has gone from providing 40 per cent of our electricity to virtually nothing and is on course to be eliminated entirely this year; renewables have gone in the opposite direction, with the UK now home to the world's five largest offshore wind farms; major post-Brexit reforms have been made to agricultural payments, ensuring that environmental goods are properly incentivised; the first Environment Act for a generation set ambitious targets to restore nature and created a suite of measures to tackle waste; and our country has been at the forefront of international efforts to protect the environment, from chairing COP26 Climate Summit to pushing for global treaties on the high seas and plastics.
None of this happened by accident. The Conservatives' willingness to embrace environmental action under successive leaders and at successive elections means that the UK can still rightly claim to be a world-leader on climate and nature protection. The fact that there is, undeniably, so much more to do does not stop this from being a proud record.
Given this record, it has therefore been disappointing to witness the Prime Minister's dialling down on enthusiasm for net zero over recent months. He is, of course, right to be mindful of cost burdens for consumers - something that the environmental movement should always be mindful of - but it is frustrating to see a reluctance to fully embrace the wider economic benefits that climate action can bring.
The Conservative manifesto continues this trend. The restatement of the 2050 net zero target and other existing pledges on boosting clean energy and introducing a carbon border adjustment mechanism are welcome and should not be taken for granted. There were also positive commitments to boost green supply chains, introduce zonal pricing for electricity, and energy efficiency vouchers. But it is hard to escape the feeling that, welcome though these measures are, they could have gone further and signalled to businesses and consumers alike that net zero is on a clear and optimistic path.
The manifesto was however much stronger on nature, with commitments echoing Conservative Environment Network (CEN) campaigns on reworking water regulation, increasing the farming budget, making it easy to plant new woodlands, and expanding marine protections around the UK overseas territories, alongside plenty on boosting access to nature. This was a clearer and more enthusiastic attempt to build on the party's proud record in government and stands in contrast to the rather tepid offering by Labour on natural environment issues.
The environment has not been a prominent part of the election debate so far, and it is unlikely to be the significant determining factor for many voters. Nevertheless, polling shows that climate action is more of a political priority to most voters than key issues like crime and education, and support for net zero is high amongst nearly all demographics.
Recent polling for the Conservative Environment Network shows that a third of those intending to switch from the Conservatives to Reform support net zero, and it made abundantly clear that the Reform vote is motivated by one issue: immigration. Seventy two percent of those switching from the Conservatives to Labour, by contrast, say that net zero will affect their voting decision. It is strong action on both immigration and climate change that stands the best chance of holding the party's 2019 coalition together at this election.
At present, the party risks having the worst of both worlds - a platform on the environment that is off-putting to the many millions of voters who do care about the issue, but which is not sceptical enough to win over the far smaller group who do not support net zero. The party's change in tack in the last year is principally about rhetoric rather than concrete policy - that is easier to correct, even at this late stage. A pragmatic but ambitious approach to net zero that embraces the opportunities and takes aim at Labour's unnecessarily statist approach, combined with greater prominence for nature, would help to win back wavering voters in these final weeks.
Time is running out to change the narrative. The Conservative Party has a proud story to tell on the environment; it must ensure that voters hear it.
First published by BusinessGreen. John Flesher is the Conservative Environment Network's Deputy Director.
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