Today, the Conservative Environment Network has launched new polling that reveals a positive message on the environment and energy security through building more renewable energy could benefit the Conservatives’ general election campaign.
Conducted by CT Group, this polling analyses 2019 Conservative voters’ support for net zero. It also breaks 2019 Conservative voters down into four categories: those now planning to vote Labour (Labour switchers); those planning to vote Reform (Reform switchers); those still planning to vote Conservative (intended Conservatives); and those who are ‘don’t know’ and people who say they are likely to change their vote (soft voters).
Around half of 2019 Conservative voters plan to vote for the party again, with many switching to Labour or Reform:
51% of Conservative 2019 voters said they intended to vote Conservative again, whilst 29% of 2019 Conservative voters say they ‘don’t know’ or are ‘fairly’ or ‘very’ likely to change their vote.
18% of our survey identified as Labour switchers, whilst 17% identified as Reform switchers.
Labour switchers are slightly more likely to change their vote (5% very likely, 17% fairly likely) when compared with Reform switchers (1% very likely, 16% likely)
Polling of Labour switchers voters show that a strong net zero narrative will have an impact on their voting intention:
72% Labour switchers said net zero emissions will affect how they vote this election (8% rated it most important, 27% very important, 37% quite important)
Only 24% of Labour switchers think Net Zero should be scrapped
16% of Labour switchers think green industries are the best sector to grow the economy, ranked second behind technology
Conservative 2019 voters are broadly environmentally conscious and supportive of net zero:
A majority (55%) of all 2019 Conservative across Britain support net zero (22% strongly support, 22% somewhat support), with only 20% opposed (9% strongly oppose, 11% quite opposed)
46% (15% strongly agree and 31% somewhat agree) of 2019 Conservative voters say their individual impact on the environment is an important consideration on day to day purchasing and leisure decision
Polling of Reform switchers show policies on climate change - either in favour of or against - will not influence their voting intentions:
61% of Reform switchers listed immigration as the most important issue that would determine if and how they vote, followed by NHS and healthcare (11%), cost of living (8%), and the economy (6%)
Only 2% of Reform switchers chose ‘climate change, environment, renewable or nuclear energy’ as their most important issue
Reform voters’ views on net zero are also divided, with 31% supporting net zero, 42% opposing, and 23% neither supporting or opposing
Energy security is a top priority for voters, who also see renewable energy as the best way to achieve this:
90% of Reform Switchers and 90% of Labour switchers say energy security is important to how they're voting
Despite halving our emissions and meeting all interim climate change targets to date, 57% of 2019 Conservative voters think we are behind schedule on reaching the 2035 clean energy and 2050 net zero targets, compared to 24% who think we are on schedule and 5% who think we’re ahead
Most 2019 Conservative voters think wind and solar should be the main focuses of the government’s investment to address climate change this decade, with 59% picking wind and 51% solar
Sam Hall, Director of the Conservative Environment Network, commented:
“We have long known that conservatives intuitively understand their responsibility to hand on a healthy environment to their children and grandchildren. This polling reaffirms that action on the environment and the net zero goal are popular with most of the 2019 Conservative voter coalition.
“‘With Nigel Farage’s decision to stand at the election and lead Reform, the Conservative strategy of winning back Reform defectors already faced significant headwinds. This polling demonstrates that the Conservative Party would not succeed in any case in getting Reform voters to switch back by promising to weaken climate policies. Contrary to common perception, Reform voters are split on climate policy and in any case are overwhelmingly motivated by immigration. The polling also illustrates how failing to set out a strong climate policy agenda in the manifesto would be a significant missed opportunity for the Conservatives to win back some of their 2019 voters who have defected to Labour.
“To maximise their vote share at the election, the party should be seeking to champion their environmental record and set out an ambitious and practical plan to build on their achievements from this parliament. This will help them build the trust of voters that they are delivering on their environmental commitments. There is a particular opportunity to double down on their success to date with the UK renewables sector, which is popular with 2019 Conservative voters, by pledging to keep expanding capacity and attracting more investment into the supply chain.”